Is the AI hype about to fade in 2024?
The persistent hype surrounding AI technology has remained a defining feature of the tech landscape, extending well into 2023, particularly in the wake of the ChatGPT launch in November 2022. With a steady stream of innovative products and features introduced almost weekly, it’s no wonder that the excitement has endured. However, a recent report from CCS Insight, a global technology research firm, hints at a looming reality check for generative AI in 2024. This anticipated shift in perspective will stem from growing awareness of the financial burdens and associated risks that come with it. Additionally, the report makes a bold prediction: the first arrest related to AI-based identity fraud is expected in the coming year.
Let’s delve into these noteworthy predictions:
#1: Generative AI's Reality Check
Generative AI models, exemplified by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google Bard, and Anthropic’s Claude, have consistently demonstrated their prowess in generating authentic and captivating content. However, these accomplishments are not without their requirements: massive computational power and extensive datasets for training and execution.
These demands are poised to come into sharper focus in 2024. CCS Insight anticipates that the hype surrounding generative AI will wane as stakeholders confront the practical implications: the costs, risks, and complexities of implementing and sustaining this technology. According to Ben Wood, chief analyst at CCS Insight, generative AI is currently overhyped, and there are formidable obstacles to overcome before it can be widely adopted. He notes that only a select few large corporations can afford to develop and employ specialized AI chips for running generative AI models, while many other organizations and developers may find the endeavor too costly.
#2: EU's AI Regulation in Turbulence
The European Union, a trailblazer in AI regulation and a benchmark for regulatory agencies worldwide, may encounter challenges in keeping pace with the rapidly evolving AI landscape.
CCS Insight’s report suggests that EU AI regulation will face hurdles and necessitate revisions, owing to the swift progress of AI development. Ongoing efforts to pass the AI Act, a pivotal piece of legislation aimed at curbing the uncontrolled expansion of AI, may be subject to multiple revisions. This act is set to ban certain technologies, including live facial recognition, in an effort to strike a balance between innovation and regulation.
#3: Proliferation of AI Content Warnings
AI-generated content is becoming increasingly prevalent and accessible on the internet. While this content serves various purposes, from entertainment and education to marketing and misinformation, it poses challenges related to authenticity and quality verification. AI-generated content can contain factual inaccuracies or biases that might mislead or harm users.
CCS Insight predicts that search engines and online platforms will soon implement content warnings to alert users when they encounter material generated by AI rather than humans. This development is akin to how social media platforms added information labels to posts related to Covid-19 to counter misinformation. Such content warnings are considered a vital step in ensuring trust and transparency in the online information landscape.
#4: AI-Driven Identity Fraud: The Dawn of Arrests
Artificial Intelligence (AI) extends its capabilities into the realm of identity impersonation, employing voice synthesis and deepfake technologies. Voice synthesis, a form of generative AI, can craft lifelike audio clips by emulating an individual’s voice using speech samples. Deepfake, another generative AI variant, specializes in crafting convincing video clips of a person’s visage or physique based on image or video references. While these technologies offer a spectrum of applications spanning entertainment, education, and security, they simultaneously pose significant risks in the form of fraudulent activities, extortion, and harassment.
The foresight of CCS Insight reveals that 2024 may witness a groundbreaking development: the first arrest of an individual deploying AI to impersonate another. This novel manifestation of identity fraud exploits the vulnerability of online identities, necessitating innovative detection and prevention techniques to shield individuals from the perils of AI-based identity impersonation.
As we usher in 2024, AI’s evolving landscape promises further advancements and discourse across various domains. CCS Insight boasts a commendable track record in predictions, though it remains prudent to approach these developments with a degree of skepticism, given the ever-evolving nature of the AI landscape.
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